Anti-establishment presidential candidates rarely win

The Republican Party establishment is losing a battle with anti-government Tea Party populists to choose the candidate who will challenge President Barack Obama in the November 2012 election. History has shown that should this occur, the Presidential election could be a disaster for Republicans.

Back in 2000, George W. Bush was not exactly the ideal candidate but the Republican establishment went with him and he won. And he won again in 2004 despite doing a pretty mediocre job. So history also suggests that if the establishment pick, Mitt Romney, survives the primaries he may likely move into the White House next year. The Republicans may not necessarily need a terribly strong candidate to beat Obama.

However, the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party which is leading an anti-establishment drive to select the presidential candidate is making things very difficult and their preferred candidate is Texas Governor Rick Perry.

The last anti-establishment Republican candidate was Barry Goldwater in 1964. He beat Nleson Rockefeller who was the preferred candidate of the party establishment and viewed as the most electable. Goldwater famously declared in his bold acceptance speech at the 1964 Republican Convention: "I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue." Goldwater received 38.4% of the popular vote and carried only six states.

The same electability issue arose in 1972 regarding the nomination of George McGovern by the Democrats. The party establishment favoured Ted Kennedy but he declined to run. They next turned to Edmund Muskie who was the 1968 vice presidential candidate. However, McGovern prevailed and secured the nomination. The election was a disaster with McGovern picking up only 37% of the popular vote and carrying only Massachusetts and Washington D.C. He failed to win his home state of South Dakota.

In both cases — Goldwater in 1964 and McGovern in 1972, neither candidate was able to attract more mainstream general election voters. The Republican primary voters tend to be more conservative and activist than the party’s more mainstream wing which plays into the hands of Rick Perry but might not work out in November 2012.