Half way through the Ontario election campaign - we are headed for Liberal minority government

Greg Morrow over at DemocraticSPACE, one of Canada’s leading non-partisan websites for provincial and federal election news, has come up with a seat projection based on recent polling. It shows the Liberals and Conservatives virtually in a dead heat with the Liberals having a slight edge on seats.

The outcome is uncertain due to the large number of ridings that are too close to call, particularly in the 905 and Southwestern Ontario. Overall, 34 of 107 ridings (31%) are too close to call. Also making projections uncertain are the significant number of incumbent MPPs, mostly Liberal, who are not running for re-election. In Toronto, the Conservatives have not faired much better than previous elections. There are leading slightly in Eglinton-Lawrence were ex-mayoralty candidate, Rocco Rossi, is trying to defeat long-time incumbent, Mike Colle.

Liberal – 47 seats (35.8%)

PC – 40 seats (34.4%)

NDP – 20 seats (24.3%)

Green – 0 seats (4.2%)

So why are the Liberals doing better than expected? Well this is Dalton McGuinty's 4th election and he has become a very skilled campaigner who no longer allows himself to be put on the defensive. He has also reached out to demographic groups that do not traditionally vote Conservative - students, women and new Canadians.

Part of the Liberal bounce has been the performance of Tim Hudak. His campaign should have focused on change as Ontarians were ready for one but he has not stayed on message. His misadventure around the Liberal plan for tax credits for hiring new Canadians was an example of straying from message. Calling new Canadians foreign workers would not be well received in the diverse GTA. In addition, his commitment to fund new programs by eliminating waste and improving efficiency is too reminiscent of Rob Ford's promise to end the gravy at City Hall.

I expect some significant shifting over the next couple weeks and voters become more focused on the elections.